The pattern of Israeli air violations in the 14-month period ending in November shows that although the number of incidents fell following last year’s cessation of hostilities (CoH) understanding, they have risen significantly in recent months, according to UNIFIL records.
At over 1,000, last October’s figure was the highest since the active hostilities of October 2024 when the mission recorded over 1,400 Israeli air violations. Despite inclement weather lasting for about a week in November, the number was third highest, at almost 900.
These violations are carried out by a wide range of aerial assets, including drones of various types, fighter aircraft, and, though less frequently, helicopters.
With the CoH understanding taking effect on 27 November 2024, the number dropped from almost 900 that month to almost 600 in December 2024. The downward trend continued until February 2025, before reversing in March when UNIFIL recorded 650 air violations.
While the number dropped for a few months, it surged again in August (over 700), and the trend continues.
UNIFIL’s 3D Surveillance Chief, Colonel Jyotisman Hazarika, says the pattern observed indicate a “deliberate and systematic approach” by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to maintain situational awareness and exert pressure.
“This persistent violation of Lebanese airspace continues to undermine stability and complicate the operational environment for both Lebanese authorities and the UN mission,” says Col. Hazarika. “Violations may decrease during winter months as adverse weather conditions may restrict the use of air assets in their full capacity.”